ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Ivo has been passing over the island of Clarion Mexico over the past few hours, with an notable wind shift occuring there at around 1030 UTC as the center moved north of the island. The latest observation from Clarion at 1245 UTC measured sustained winds of 40 kt with gusts to 46 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that 50 kt winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. As the satellite appearance of the cyclone has not degraded since that time, the initial intensity of Ivo remains at 50 kt for this advisory. Ivo is moving NNW or 330/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around a mid level ridge over northern Mexico. A slight decrease in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours as Ivo weakens and becomes a shallow system. All forecast models agree with this scenario, and the official forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA. Northeasterly shear continues to impact the storm which is resulting the convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle. The SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should abate over the next 12-24 hours. However, by that time Ivo will be moving over marginal water temperatures and into a slightly drier environment which should cause the system to slowly weaken. In about 24 hours the cyclone will pass over the 26 C isotherm, and by 48 hours it will be over waters of about 22 C and in a stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the solution of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.8N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:56 UTC