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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

An average of Dvorak intensity estimates indicates that Erick is
not quite a hurricane yet. The cloud pattern has not changed very
much since this morning, and the mid-level eye in microwave data has
been intermittent. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory.

The environment continues to be favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane soon. The corrected-
consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE continue to
bring Erick to near category 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC
forecast.  By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in
the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly
shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does
not depart significantly from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge
is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a
west-northwestward motion of the cyclone with a decrease in
forward speed. There are no models suggesting any sharp turn to the
north during the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast has changed
little, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 12.7N 138.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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