ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 An average of Dvorak intensity estimates indicates that Erick is not quite a hurricane yet. The cloud pattern has not changed very much since this morning, and the mid-level eye in microwave data has been intermittent. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The environment continues to be favorable for intensification, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane soon. The corrected- consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE continue to bring Erick to near category 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does not depart significantly from the previous one. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a west-northwestward motion of the cyclone with a decrease in forward speed. There are no models suggesting any sharp turn to the north during the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast has changed little, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.7N 138.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:49 UTC