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Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019
All of the central convection associated with Cosme dissipated about
5 hours ago, around 2200 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to
becoming a remnant low. Since the core convection has now
dissipated, it is assumed that the cyclone's winds have decreased
since the last ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 30-35 kt winds.
The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Cosme a tropical
depression. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with
the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and automated Dvorak
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.
Cosme is currently over cool 24 degree C waters, and it is headed
for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry and stable air
mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the system to
degenerate to a remnant low overnight or early Monday and dissipate
in two or three days.
The tropical depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt. Cosme is
expected to slow down and gradually turn toward the left, within the
low-level flow, until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is just a tad
north of the previous advisory track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW