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Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Alvin has become a swirl of low and mid-level clouds as strong
shear and cooler waters have caused a rapid demise of the tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and is
based on the latest Dvorak T-numbers.  The hostile environmental
conditions should continue to cause the cyclone to weaken today,
and the system should degenerate into a remnant low later this
morning.

As expected, Alvin has slowed down and turned west-northwestward,
with an initial motion estimate of 290/7 kt.  Now that Alvin has
become a vertically shallow system, a slow westward to west-
northwestward motion within the low-level trade wind flow is
forecast until dissipation occurs. The NHC forecast track lies
along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and is in best
agreement with the latest ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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