ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Alvin has become a swirl of low and mid-level clouds as strong shear and cooler waters have caused a rapid demise of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak T-numbers. The hostile environmental conditions should continue to cause the cyclone to weaken today, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low later this morning. As expected, Alvin has slowed down and turned west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 290/7 kt. Now that Alvin has become a vertically shallow system, a slow westward to west- northwestward motion within the low-level trade wind flow is forecast until dissipation occurs. The NHC forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:42 UTC