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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
POQUOSON VIRGINIA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT...AND FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FL TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.  FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  79.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  79.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  79.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N  79.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N  79.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.0N  77.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.9N  74.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N  65.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.5N  42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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