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Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern
consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized
convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation. There
is little evidence of banding features at this time. The current
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB. North-northeasterly vertical
shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of
days. Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the
land mass of Mexico by mid-week.
Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar
indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west,
and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt. There has been
little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it.
Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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