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Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern
consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized
convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  There
is little evidence of banding features at this time.  The current
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  North-northeasterly vertical
shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of
days.  Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the
land mass of Mexico by mid-week.

Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar
indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west,
and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt.  There has been
little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it.
Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area.  The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 14.4N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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