Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit www.weather.gov. To learn more, see www.commerce.gov.

Hurricane SERGIO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018               
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   7(27)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  31(32)   2(34)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  48(50)   2(52)   X(52)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)
25N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 125W       34  4   5( 9)   9(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
20N 125W       34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)  22(31)  14(45)   X(45)   X(45)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 130W       50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
NNNN