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Tropical Storm SERGIO
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in the northern semicircle. In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical characteristics. Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening should continue from now on. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical depression followed by dissipation. Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are not expected to change, the general motion should continue until dissipation in about 36 hours os so. Track models continue to be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN