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Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl
of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in
the northern semicircle.  In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite
resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical
characteristics.  Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now
support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is
already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening
should continue from now on.  Sergio, however, is expected to still
be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula
on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with
the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical
depression followed by dissipation.

Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward
the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are
not expected to change, the general motion should continue
until dissipation in about 36 hours os so.  Track models continue to
be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio
over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a
little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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