Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit www.weather.gov. To learn more, see www.commerce.gov.
Tropical Storm OLIVIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018 The tropical cyclone's convection is still not well organized, and the cloud pattern consists of an irregularly shaped CDO-like feature with limited banding. Nonetheless, a couple of scatterometer overpasses showed that the cyclone had winds to around 40 kt over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Therefore the system is being named, and the aforementioned wind speed will be used for the advisory intensity. The north-northeasterly shear that has been affecting the storm is expected to abate somewhat, which would allow for further strengthening. The official intensity forecast is in line with the latest numerical model consensus, IVCN. Some of the models show more rapid strengthening during the next day or two, but this does not seem likely at this time since the system is still not very well organized and some shear is expected to continue affecting it. The center was somewhat elongated in the scatterometer data, but appeared to be located a little north of the previous working best track. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/8 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Olivia should lead to a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion over the next day or two. Thereafter, a strengthening ridge is likely to cause a turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed. Late in the forecast period, the dynamical model consensus indicates a turn back to the west-northwest. The official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, mainly due to the recent re-positioning of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN