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Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The tropical cyclone's convection is still not well organized, and
the cloud pattern consists of an irregularly shaped CDO-like
feature with limited banding.  Nonetheless, a couple of
scatterometer overpasses showed that the cyclone had winds to around
40 kt over the southern semicircle of the circulation.  Therefore
the system is being named, and the aforementioned wind speed will be
used for the advisory intensity.  The north-northeasterly shear
that has been affecting the storm is expected to abate somewhat,
which would allow for further strengthening.  The official
intensity forecast is in line with the latest numerical model
consensus, IVCN.  Some of the models show more rapid strengthening
during the next day or two, but this does not seem likely at this
time since the system is still not very well organized and some
shear is expected to continue affecting it.

The center was somewhat elongated in the scatterometer data, but
appeared to be located a little north of the previous working best
track.  The initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/8 kt.  A weak
mid-level ridge to the north of Olivia should lead to a slow
west-northwestward to northwestward motion over the next day or two.
Thereafter, a strengthening ridge is likely to cause a turn toward
the west with some increase in forward speed.  Late in the forecast
period, the dynamical model consensus indicates a turn back to the
west-northwest.  The official track forecast is a little north of
the previous one, mainly due to the recent re-positioning of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 16.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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