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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

Visible imagery from Himawari continues to show an exposed low
level circulation center with the cold, high clouds shearing off
farther to the northest. Over the past several hours the amount of
cold, high clouds has decreased in area and the tops have
warmed.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO, SAB
and JTWC were all 2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity for this
advisory has been kept at 35 kt, but that may be generous.
 
A strong east northeast to west southwest ridge north of Lane
continues to steer the storm. The initial motion for this advisory
is 260/6 kt. Satellite water vapor loops show a deep low aloft near
24N 172W. Southwest flow associated with this low is producing the
shear now impacting Lane. The low aloft is forecast to deepen a
north south surface trough along 170W. The weakening circulation of
Lane will become part of this trough and turn toward the north
northwest tonight.
 
Lane is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low within 24
hours. The remnant low will continue to weaken as a new
extratropical low forms to the northwest. The remnants of Lane will
become wrapped up into that low.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 18.4N 166.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.9N 167.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 20.0N 168.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 21.6N 169.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 23.5N 170.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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