ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 54 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018 Visible imagery from Himawari continues to show an exposed low level circulation center with the cold, high clouds shearing off farther to the northest. Over the past several hours the amount of cold, high clouds has decreased in area and the tops have warmed. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO, SAB and JTWC were all 2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory has been kept at 35 kt, but that may be generous. A strong east northeast to west southwest ridge north of Lane continues to steer the storm. The initial motion for this advisory is 260/6 kt. Satellite water vapor loops show a deep low aloft near 24N 172W. Southwest flow associated with this low is producing the shear now impacting Lane. The low aloft is forecast to deepen a north south surface trough along 170W. The weakening circulation of Lane will become part of this trough and turn toward the north northwest tonight. Lane is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours. The remnant low will continue to weaken as a new extratropical low forms to the northwest. The remnants of Lane will become wrapped up into that low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.4N 166.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.9N 167.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.0N 168.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.6N 169.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 23.5N 170.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Donaldson NNNN
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