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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
 
Lane's low-level circulation center has been exposed for the better 
part of the past 24 hours, barring a period this afternoon when 
bursting convection briefly moved over the center. These 
thunderstorms were quickly sheared away to the east as Lane remains 
embedded in an environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical
wind shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 1.5/25 kt
from HFO/SAB/GTW, but Lane's appearance hasn't changed much since a 
morning ASCAT pass indicated 30 kt in the northern semicircle. As 
such, the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/8 kt, with Lane being 
driven westward by a surface high to the distant NE. This motion 
will continue in the short-term, with the strong shear likely 
causing Lane to devolve into a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.
A brief slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and
Tuesday as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high
and begins to interact with a mid-level low to its west. Although 
confidence is reduced, this interaction is expected to lead to the 
development of an extratropical low later Tuesday into Wednesday.
This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks northwest.
The updated track and intensity forecast is close to the previous
forecast, and represents a blend of regional and global model
guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 18.9N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z 35.5N 178.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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