ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 52 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018 Lane's low-level circulation center has been exposed for the better part of the past 24 hours, barring a period this afternoon when bursting convection briefly moved over the center. These thunderstorms were quickly sheared away to the east as Lane remains embedded in an environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 1.5/25 kt from HFO/SAB/GTW, but Lane's appearance hasn't changed much since a morning ASCAT pass indicated 30 kt in the northern semicircle. As such, the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is 270/8 kt, with Lane being driven westward by a surface high to the distant NE. This motion will continue in the short-term, with the strong shear likely causing Lane to devolve into a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. A brief slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and Tuesday as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to interact with a mid-level low to its west. Although confidence is reduced, this interaction is expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low later Tuesday into Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks northwest. The updated track and intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast, and represents a blend of regional and global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.9N 164.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z 35.5N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:23:35 UTC