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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
 
During the past few hours, satellite imagery shows a burst of
convection has developed near the circulation center of Lane, which
was nearly totally exposed Friday evening. Lightning has also been
persistent near the core of this deep convection. More importantly,
we have been able to see the apparent center of circulation in the
radar reflectivity data, which helps our confidence in the latest
location and motion. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of
the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 50 knots.
 
The latest motion for this advisory is 350/3 knots. The current
track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36
hours, with little change from days 2 through 5. This forecast
closely follows the HWRF, and is to the right of the consensus
models such as TVCN, GFEX and HCCA. There are only subtle changes in
the track forecast compared with the previous from days 2 through 5.
Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of
greater than 30 knots. The latest intensity forecast has Lane
becoming post-tropical by day 4. Assuming this low survives, it may
eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
state. In addition, strong winds are also possible in these rain
bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps,
and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 19.8N 158.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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