ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018 During the past few hours, satellite imagery shows a burst of convection has developed near the circulation center of Lane, which was nearly totally exposed Friday evening. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of this deep convection. More importantly, we have been able to see the apparent center of circulation in the radar reflectivity data, which helps our confidence in the latest location and motion. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity to 50 knots. The latest motion for this advisory is 350/3 knots. The current track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36 hours, with little change from days 2 through 5. This forecast closely follows the HWRF, and is to the right of the consensus models such as TVCN, GFEX and HCCA. There are only subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous from days 2 through 5. Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of greater than 30 knots. The latest intensity forecast has Lane becoming post-tropical by day 4. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state. In addition, strong winds are also possible in these rain bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.8N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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