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Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

This special advisory reduces the current intensity of Lane to 75
kt based on rapid weakening of the associated cloud and radar
patterns observed over the past few hours, and adjusts the intensity
and wind radii forecast to better agree with current trends. There
are no other changes at this time. This special advisory takes the
place of the 2 pm intermediate advisory.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the
islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central
core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would
happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County
or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless
of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible
and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center
of Lane.
 
2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds
to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.
 
3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash
flooding and landslides in some areas.
 
4. High and potentially damaging surf can be expected along exposed
south facing shorelines today through Saturday, which could cause 
severe beach erosion in some areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0000Z 19.6N 157.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Ballard
 
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