ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 This special advisory reduces the current intensity of Lane to 75 kt based on rapid weakening of the associated cloud and radar patterns observed over the past few hours, and adjusts the intensity and wind radii forecast to better agree with current trends. There are no other changes at this time. This special advisory takes the place of the 2 pm intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center of Lane. 2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings. 3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash flooding and landslides in some areas. 4. High and potentially damaging surf can be expected along exposed south facing shorelines today through Saturday, which could cause severe beach erosion in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0000Z 19.6N 157.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Ballard NNNN
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