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Tropical Depression GILMA
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear. During the past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates. This makes Gilma a tropical depression. Although Gilma is expected to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is expected to be in excess of 30 kt. The remnant low is predicted to open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila NNNN