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Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear.  During the
past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at
times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the
southeast of the center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt
based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates.
This makes Gilma a tropical depression.  Although Gilma is expected
to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the
northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile.
Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now
forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is
expected to be in excess of 30 kt.  The remnant low is predicted to
open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  A west to
west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is
steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is slightly
south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila

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