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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Satellite images indicate that Carlotta is slowly getting better organized, with lots of banding features. ASCAT data indicated peak winds of near 35 kt, close to the coast of Mexico, and this will be the initial wind speed, matching the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB. Radar data from Acapulco suggest that Carlotta hasn't moved a lot in the past few hours, and continues moving slowly to the northeast. The storm should get steered in that general direction through landfall early tomorrow due to the influences of a large trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Little change was made to the official track forecast, except the landfall is about 6 hours sooner. Carlotta doesn't have much time left to intensify, but could strengthen a little more before the small cyclone quickly dissipates over Mexico. Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat, there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.1N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 16.4N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.9N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN