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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that Carlotta is slowly getting better
organized, with lots of banding features.   ASCAT data indicated
peak winds of near 35 kt, close to the coast of Mexico, and this
will be the initial wind speed, matching the latest Dvorak estimates
from TAFB/SAB.

Radar data from Acapulco suggest that Carlotta hasn't moved a lot
in the past few hours, and continues moving slowly to the northeast.
The storm should get steered in that general direction through
landfall early tomorrow due to the influences of a large trough
over the western Gulf of Mexico.  Little change was made to the
official track forecast, except the landfall is about 6 hours
sooner. Carlotta doesn't have much time left to intensify, but could
strengthen a little more before the small cyclone quickly dissipates
over Mexico.

Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat,
there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to
moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre
mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office
for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 16.1N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.4N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.9N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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