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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  18...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have
leveled off for now.  The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has
generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep
convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the
eastern half of the circulation.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated that
the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has
generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial
intensity is held at that value.  This intensity estimate is also
in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB.

Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side
of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S.  This
general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that
should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur
by late Thursday.  After that time, a trough approaching the
tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north
and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland
Mexico.  The models are in very good agreement, and only small
adjustments were made to the previous track forecast.

Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over
cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja
California Sur.  Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the
surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h
position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive
that long due to the rugged terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast
follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update
of the previous one.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and
possible flash flooding across those areas.  For further information
on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your
local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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