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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Upwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB. The advisory intensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range. Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt. The ridge is not expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a deepening trough extending from California southward should cause Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours. After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCX multi-model consensus. This forecast is along the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to the east on days 3 and 4. Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days, which will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Bud is likely to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48 hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN