ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Upwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud.  The hurricane no
longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern
side of the circulation.  Satellite intensity estimates are
decreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt
from the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB.  The advisory
intensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range.

Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over
New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep
north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt.  The ridge is not
expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a
deepening trough extending from California southward should cause
Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours.
After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the
ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the
Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4.
The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is
very close to the TVCX multi-model consensus.  This forecast is
along the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to
the east on days 3 and 4.

Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days,
which will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily
weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula.  The updated
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during
the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and
it is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus.  Bud is likely
to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a
tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula.

Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a
tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48
hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN