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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 160SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  81.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 320SE 240SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 200SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 300SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 240SE 210SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 480SE 480SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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