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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  86.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  86.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  87.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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