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Hurricane LESLIE


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Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,
although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial
eyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity
estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at
80 kt.

The initial motion is now 065/24.  The guidance is in good
agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.
After that, there is a major model divergence.  The GFS, ECMWF, and
the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast
motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain.  On the other hand, the
UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the
south and then back to the west.  Since the previous forecast showed
a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also
follow this scenario.  However, it is shifted well to the east of
the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.
Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low
confidence.

Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island
during the next 24-36 h.  After that, the intensity forecast is
dependent on what track the cyclone takes.  If it follows the
GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the
Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate.  If it follows the UKMET
scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening.  Since the track forecast is
closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by
72 h.  However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the
uncertainties in the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 31.9N  31.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 33.1N  26.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 34.2N  20.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 34.6N  15.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 34.0N  13.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 32.0N  12.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z 30.0N  13.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0600Z 28.0N  18.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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