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Hurricane LESLIE


Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Leslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and
several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is
maintaining a well-defined mid-level eye.  However, objective and
subjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity
has been held at 65 kt.  All of the intensity guidance forecasts
that Leslie will resume intensifying later today.  Given that the
hurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over
the warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very
likely.  No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h.
Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track
forecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the
stronger it will likely be.  Extratropical transition also can not
be ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day
5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity
forecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a
large range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie
becoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane

The spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence
in the track forecast is low.  The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a
5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread
is over 1300 n mi.  Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn
toward the east-northeast.  A faster motion in that direction is
anticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from
the northwest.  Leslie will then either undergo extratropical
transition and lift northward, continue westward and become a
remnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west.  The
NHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large
changes to the forecast were made since the future track of the
cyclone has not become more clear.


INIT  10/1500Z 27.8N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 27.8N  41.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 28.4N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 29.6N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 30.7N  31.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 31.5N  23.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 29.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 27.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky