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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018
Leslie's convective organization has changed little since the
previous advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having
developed just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50
kt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several
45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center.
The initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is
forecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly
flow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving
toward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond, a
stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie,
lifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous
advisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models.
Leslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the
cyclone entrains some drier air. After that time, however, Leslie
is expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than
25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain
low. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days
2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
intensity consensus model.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 37.3N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH