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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 77.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.0 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion
of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by
late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
on Monday and a tropical storm Monday night.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be
possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida
Keys.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

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