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SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE
RIVER.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CRYSTAL RIVER
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  84.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  84.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  85.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N  85.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.4N  86.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N  86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.6N  87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 35.6N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 39.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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