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Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

There has been very little change in Otis' cloud structure during
the past several hours.  The modest southerly shear and dominant
surrounding stable air mass continue to inhibit convective
development around the circulation center, other than in the
northern portion.  A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass, however,
still indicated winds of tropical-storm-force in the aforementioned
convective mass.  Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35
kt.  Weakening is again forecast and the global models agree with
Otis becoming a remnant low during the next day or so, and
dissipation during the next couple of days.

The initial motion is estimated to be basically a drift
west-southwestward.  Within the next 12 hours, Otis is forecast to
be steered southwestward by a mid-level ridge situated over the
central Pacific, and this motion is expected to continue until
Otis dissipates.  The official forecast has changed little from
the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 19.0N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.6N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.9N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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