ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 There has been very little change in Otis' cloud structure during the past several hours. The modest southerly shear and dominant surrounding stable air mass continue to inhibit convective development around the circulation center, other than in the northern portion. A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass, however, still indicated winds of tropical-storm-force in the aforementioned convective mass. Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Weakening is again forecast and the global models agree with Otis becoming a remnant low during the next day or so, and dissipation during the next couple of days. The initial motion is estimated to be basically a drift west-southwestward. Within the next 12 hours, Otis is forecast to be steered southwestward by a mid-level ridge situated over the central Pacific, and this motion is expected to continue until Otis dissipates. The official forecast has changed little from the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.0N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.9N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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