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Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017


The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now
consists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is
well removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I
was tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue
the last advisory. However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid
weakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that
convection does not redevelop near the center.

The GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the
system quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a
weak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then
westward within the low-level flow for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 10.9N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 11.3N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 12.0N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 12.5N  96.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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