ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017 400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017 The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now consists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is well removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I was tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue the last advisory. However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid weakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that convection does not redevelop near the center. The GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the system quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a weak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then westward within the low-level flow for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 10.9N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 11.3N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 12.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 12.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 12.5N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 12.5N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 12.5N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 12.5N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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