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Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery
indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate
and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also
weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to
decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the
technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80
kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,
Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the
fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to
persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before
dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement
and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the
southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).
Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain
until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will
arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 41.6N  16.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 46.0N  13.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  16/1200Z 51.5N   9.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/0000Z 57.0N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1200Z 60.5N   1.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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