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Hurricane JOSE


Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

Jose continues to exhibit a well-defined eye in visible and infrared
satellite imagery, and U.S. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft measurements suggest that this eye has become slightly
more asymmetric.  The eye is evident on the Meteo France
radar and it is beginning to pass just north of the northernmost
Leeward Islands. The aircraft data indicate that Jose remains a
category 4 hurricane, and reconnaissance aircraft has reported SFMR
and flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 125 kt
for this advisory. The latest minimum pressure reported by the plane
is 945 mb.

Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate northeastward
elongation of the cirrus canopy accompanying Jose, suggesting the
southwesterly shear over the system is beginning to increase.
The interaction between Jose and shear accompanying the
aforementioned trough will likely result in a weakening trend
through the weekend. The official intensity forecast has trended
slightly lower, consistent with the latest IVCN and HCCA output.
Once the deep shear superimposing Jose weakens with the
departure of the mid-latitude trough, Jose's weakening is expected
slow by early next week.

During the next couple of days, Jose is expected to turn more
north of west while being steered around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge. The latest official track forecast reflects a
slight increase in forward motion over the next couple of days.
By early next week, the flow around the trough will result in a
northward, then eastward turn around 26N.  Thereafter, Jose forward
motion should slow down as it is left within an area of weak
steering current behind the trough. The latest track of Jose has
been shifted southward after 72 h to be more consistent with the
latest ECMWF and TVCN guidance.


INIT  09/1500Z 18.3N  61.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 19.4N  62.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 20.9N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 22.6N  66.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 24.1N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 26.0N  68.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 26.0N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 25.7N  66.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

Forecaster Cohen/Brown