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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Although the radar presentation of the inner core of Harvey has
degraded considerably, the system continues to produce intense
convection in bands to the east and southeast of the center.  The
current intensity estimate is set to 40 kt based on surface
synoptic data over southeastern Texas.  Since the center is
expected to remain mainly over land during the forecast period,
continued weakening is likely.  Given that a significant portion of
the circulation is over water, however, this weakening should be
very slow to occur.  The official intensity forecast is
similar to the model consensus.

Harvey has been meandering overnight and now appears to be drifting
south-southwestward.  The cyclone is trapped between mid-level
highs to its west-northwest and east-southeast.  Over the next
couple of days, the flow on the southern periphery of a trough
dropping over the east-central United States should cause Harvey to
move slowly southeastward to eastward.  Later in the forecast
period, increased ridging to east of the cyclone should cause
Harvey to turn northward.  The official track forecast is close
to the latest model consensus and brings the center to the coast
and, briefly, just offshore of southeastern Texas.  At this time,
it is not expected that Harvey will move far enough out over the
water to result in regeneration.

The biggest concern with Harvey is now the rain, a lot of rain.
Rainfall totals of nearly 20 inches have been reported in the
Houston area.  This is resulting in catastrophic flooding which,
unfortunately, will continue for some time.

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday.  Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.2N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 29.0N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/0600Z 28.7N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/1800Z 28.5N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  29/0600Z 28.5N  96.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0600Z 29.4N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0600Z 30.8N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0600Z 32.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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