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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 123.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 128.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 120.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 
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