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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

Deep convection associated with Darby continues to diminish this
morning with a couple of thin, fragmented curved bands located just
to the southwest of the center of circulation.  The initial
intensity is, therefore, lowered to 65 kt and agrees with a blend
of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
The cyclone is currently moving over SSTs near 24C, but will soon
be traversing slightly warmer water during the next day or two.
Consequently, there could be some convective banding redevelopment
which could temporarily curtail weakening.  After that time, the
global models all indicate an increase in westerly shear which is
expected to influence further weakening through the end of the
period.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects gradual weakening and
is slightly above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt, to the south of a narrow
mid-tropospheric ridge extending along 30N.  A generally westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is
forecast during the next 72 hours.  Through the remaining portion
of the forecast period, the aforementioned ridge is expected to
briefly strengthen, causing the cyclone to move just a bit south of
due west.  The official forecast is again shifted a little
northward and is located between the multi-model consensus and a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 18.7N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 19.1N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 19.7N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 20.1N 137.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 20.2N 139.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 19.6N 144.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 18.7N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 18.8N 152.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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