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HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 125.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 126.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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