ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Since the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave
satellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better
organized.  Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of
this afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission.  The initial
intensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier
scatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.  The upper-level outflow is restricted over the
southeastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued
south-southeasterly vertical shear.  Strengthening to a hurricane
seems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close
to the model consensus.  There remains a lot of uncertainty as to
whether Otto will survive crossing Central America.  The official
forecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as
suggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.

There has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while
Otto remains in an environment of weak steering currents.  The
global models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building
to the north of the storm over the next several days.  This should
cause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a
continued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the
latter part of the period.  The official track forecast is close to
a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 11.3N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 11.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 11.1N  79.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 11.1N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 11.2N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z 11.2N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN