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HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 3(23) X(23)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 4(25) X(25)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 14(36) 2(38) X(38)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 16(29) 18(47) 2(49) 1(50)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 15(48) 2(50) X(50)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 18(38) 15(53) 1(54) X(54)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 17(48) 14(62) 1(63) X(63)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 11(11) 32(43) 16(59) 10(69) X(69) X(69)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 19(20) 36(56) 11(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 10(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 30(31) 33(64) 8(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) 27(29) 8(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
KINGS BAY GA 34 3 70(73) 14(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 27(27) 28(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 10(10) 25(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
WAYCROSS GA 34 2 36(38) 26(64) 4(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 77(81) 9(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 42(42) 21(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 19(19) 24(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
JACKSONVILLE 34 3 75(78) 11(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 35(35) 22(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 13(13) 19(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 69(73) 6(79) 3(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 17(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 53 45(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 78(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 64(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
THE VILLAGES 34 16 67(83) 2(85) 2(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
THE VILLAGES 50 2 27(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
THE VILLAGES 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 74 23(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98)
ORLANDO FL 50 11 58(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
ORLANDO FL 64 3 37(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 62 30(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 28 53(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
PATRICK AFB 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 60 32(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
PATRICK AFB 64 27 53(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 50 89 3(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
FT PIERCE FL 64 69 8(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 50 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
W PALM BEACH 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 83 X(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 31 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) 2(37) 2(39)
MIAMI FL 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8)
KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
NAPLES FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
FT MYERS FL 34 6 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 2(15) 1(16)
VENICE FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) 2(14) X(14)
TAMPA FL 34 6 22(28) 3(31) 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35)
TAMPA FL 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 26(29) 5(34) 3(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ANDROS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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