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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016
CORRECT DISTANCE FROM NASSAU
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED
...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, and
is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by tomorrow
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph
(185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The recent weakening is
likely to be short-lived, as Matthew as expected to intensify later
tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is expected to remain at a
category 3 or stronger intensity while it moves through the Bahamas
and approaches the east coast of Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba.
Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to
Savannah River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.