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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquin
has been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a general
motion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected through
Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast
Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to
move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and
Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas
Thursday night or Friday.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become
a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.